Guest Editorial: Softer Targets, Harder Defense

While America's war against terrorism has slowed al Qaeda's stride, it and its sympathizers continue to carry out missions of terror. However, we now seem to be witnessing a new strategy, one that potentially impacts every emergency response agency across our nation: the selection of "soft" targets.

Initially, al Qaeda appeared to value high-profile targets like those attacked on 9/11. Since then, however, these and other potential "hard" targets have been better secured. Terrorists now find it difficult, if not impossible, to access and collect hard-target intelligence. Consequently, Osama bin Laden and his followers have modified their strategy to focus on less-guarded targets of opportunity (soft targets).

The July attacks in London represented evidence of this, but this tactical downshift was noticed even before. FBI officials warned in a recent release: "Recent mass-casualty attacks in Saudi Arabia, Indonesia and Iraq used car bombs against hotels and housing compounds, suggesting that 'soft' targets with minimum physical security measures could be viewed as attractive options in the U.S. Reports also mention operational plans involving apartment complexes, gas stations and restaurants."

At the time of this writing, the London attacks (and the smaller explosions that followed two weeks later) hadn't been definitively attributed to al Qaeda or its sympathizers, but they evidenced trademark tactics used by the network in events like the Madrid commuter train bombing of March 2004, which killed 191. Said Lawrence Freeman, professor of war studies at King's College in London, quoted by the AP, "This [was] clearly an al Qaeda-style attack. It was well-coordinated, it was timed for a political event [the opening of the G8 Summit], and it was a multiple attack on a transportation system at rush hour." Terrorists want quick, effective, lethal results and immediate media coverage. Unfortunately, common explosives provide the means to accomplish both.

Serious Risks
This new strategy poses serious risks for us. First, soft targets are just about everywhere--the list is endless. Jurisdictions not previously identified as potential targets are now in near-equal jeopardy with places like New York City or Washington, DC. All states are potentially impacted. Of course, striking smaller targets does not produce the "shock and awe" of a World Trade Center attack, but the psychological effect is significant.

For instance, consider the result of an improvised explosive device (IED) detonated inside a crowded midwestern shopping center, or a suicide bomber on a commuter bus in a midsize northern city. Attacks like these may not kill thousands, but what they lack in body count is more than compensated for by the national trepidation they would instill.

There are other troubling developments. While the majority of al Qaeda's membership is Middle Eastern males, current intelligence reveals it is, and has been for some time, recruiting non-Arabs, both men and women--accused London bomber Germaine Lindsay, for instance, was Jamaican-born. Reports like these signal a further change in strategy. "Using non-Arabs might make it easier for al Qaeda to circumvent security measures in Europe and the United States," an FBI bulletin warned. "Of special concern are people with ties to Islamic extremist groups in North Africa and parts of Asia outside the Middle East."

Most alarming, numerous network supporters are already thought to be here, conducting clandestine operations, and their exact whereabouts are largely unknown. U.S. authorities quoted in the Washington Times said, "Al Qaeda terrorists, operating through 'sleeper cells' scattered throughout the United States, continue to recruit new members, assist in the acquisition of safe houses and equipment, conduct pre-attack surveillance and relay messages from terrorist leaders and planners." Given this new landscape, every state and local political subdivision is vulnerable. No community, no matter how small or safe, is off limits or terrorist-proof.